Page 19 - Журнал Sozvezdye Review - «СОЗВЕЗДИЕ» #38

among largest Arctic cargo owners, which became
especially acute in January 2021, when their newly
launched projects faced bad shortage of port capacity
and ships – a result of unperformed evaluation of the
transport hubs’ capacity. So far, only terminals them-
selves and investors express concern, but only to meet
their short-term needs. State-owned enterprises (Ro-
satom, Rosmorport, Russian Railways) have not yet
done their calculations and are yet to face the chal-
lenge as some of the Russian regions are already taken
hostage by the increasing demand for ships. In Octo-
ber 2021, the governors of Kamchatka and Chukotka
called on the plenipotentiary representative of the Rus-
sian President to assist in arranging for transportation
of socially significant goods. Furthermore, there have
been hundreds of containers that didn’t make it from
Arkhangelsk to the seaport of Pevek. The likely conse-
quences are superexpensive transportation by air and
winter roads, in-transit damage and general underde-
livery.
What may the future hold for us? The volumes of
transshipment, as declared by investors in the Russian
Arctic based on their schedules, mean that there will be
a cardinal increase in workload for the shipping ports ing works, located on Taimyr, the center of the Russian
of Arkhangelsk and Murmansk. Investment activity is Arctic coast. This company’s logistics teams provide not
likely to peak in 2024. Since Arkhangelsk is more op- only for the needs of mining operations and subsequent
erationally suitable for transshipping Arctic-bound car- exports, but also for the needs of Arctic’s largest city.
goes, its turnover will increase more than three-fold by Norilsk Nickel owns river and sea-going vessels, berths
2025, as compared to 2020 and considering the uneven in Dudinka, Krasnoyarsk, Lesosibirsk, Murmansk. It
intra-annual distribution. And in fact it does not matter even has its own railway. Its efforts focused on produc-
if it’s going to be Arkhangelsk or Murmansk or Kandal- tion strategies, Norilsk Nickel has all its non-core ac-
aksha – the process is just not due for change. tivities outsourced (Arkhangelsk Sea Commercial Port)
and supervised.
Future expectations Conclusions lie on the surface: Large investors or
project operators, who have come to the Arctic to stay
Our analysis of the prospective cargo flows to the for decades, are destined to have their own terminals
Russian Arctic development projects confidently shows and fleets. First terminals, then fleets. When we say
a high involvement of sea and river transport. Peak loads “own” we don’t mean title or operating authority – the
will occur in 2024 – the year when the Russian Arctic role as asset operator will be quite sufficient. Otherwise,
will see the biggest surge in construction activity. Our the investor can become hostage to low competition and
projections further show a reduction in coal production what goes with it – fluctuating chartering market and
and the use of coal as heating fuel for the northern com- transshipment rates, lacking terminals and/or fleet, dis-
munities. Diesel, and in more developed regions nucle- rupted supply, repeated postponement of income-gen-
ar, LNG and methanol fuels, will be used instead. The erating facility commissioning dates and, consequently,
switch from coal to LNG will, in turn, lead to an increase direct losses for every day of construction delay.
in containerized freight and a reduction in bulk cargoes. It should be also noted that, while shipment capac-
While coal is likely to remain the major cargo for Yana, ity can be increased in summer navigation season at
Indigirka, Kolyma and Khatanga River basins, there is the expense of extra fleets, the tasks of engineering and
every likelihood that the major coastal ports, and urban building coastal infrastructure for sea/river ports need
localities, can reduce their coal consumption. much more time. Capital-intensive and time-consum-
In 4 to 6 years, the era of containerization will fi- ing as it is, this infrastructure can be initiated in the
nally reach the Arctic, and once this happens a signifi- current Russian business environment only by the proj-
cant part of general cargo will pass into the category ect operator (investor) or the state.
of containerized. Sufficient regularity of carriages will The assets built in Soviet times have either been
make it possible to achieve higher container turnover wasted or fully utilized. Now that export terminals are
even in the “closed” Arctic supply system, leading to a experiencing rapid growth, any shortage in further in-
reduction in freight prices and “healthier” performance vestments in the infrastructure of the northern ship-
of terminals. ping ports may, sooner or later, threaten the export-
As regular transportation by sea will continue to ers’ schedules for development and normal operation
pick up, the share of river transport in the supply of of their Arctic-based production facilities.
the remoter coastal settlements will see a decrease.
Thus, maintaining sea carriages during two consecu-
tive seasons will be a more preferred option than the
highly risky transportation by river in summer. River
traffic will continue to have constructional materials
as its dominant cargo – a general trend within the in-
land water transport sector. Containers will remain a SOZVEZDYE #38
universal means of delivery by sea and river. For these
reasons, the Eastern Arctic ports (Pevek and Tiksi) will
continue to use Arkhangelsk and Murmansk as their транспорт
shipping ports (currently, about 60% of Pevek-bound transport
cargoes come from western shipping ports).

Soviet assets are exhausted

Despite the challenges described above, logistics
seem to be working flawlessly for Norilsk Nickel min- 17